El Nino, climate change or what?

Right in the beginning of June this year, I bought an umbrella. It was the start of the monsoon season, and the forecast of an early start to the annual rains prompted me to do so. Simultaneously, I was reading of the possibility of the El Nino forming and that it could affect the South West monsoon in India. It’s past June 15^th and I’ve still to unfurl the umbrella that remains in its original packing, the reason being there has been little rain over the state of Goa.

A quick visit to the IMD Goa website confirmed my fears about the monsoon. It has been described as weak, and until June 15, the rainfall received has been lower by 54.8 percent of the average for the period, with temperatures in degrees Celsius recorded in the middle 30s and humidity at over 85 per cent. One really cannot argue with all those complaining that it is hot. This is not normal weather for the month of June.

June is when the rains come, the temperature drops, the dusty leaves of the trees are washed clean, the parched and bald fields are quenched of their thirst, and begin to sprout green, the farmer steps into his patch of turf and prepares it for sowing. There has been a deviation to most of the above this season.

The farmer is in the fields, but the rain is missing. It’s bright and sunny out there and it hardly appears to be the monsoon season. The monsoon in Goa announces its arrival not merely with the first droplets of rain, but with light and sound, as lightning and thunder accompany the showers and petrichor tickles the nostrils. There was no thunder and no lightning this year, perhaps the first time since childhood that I can remember the monsoon breaking without its fury.

The deviation from the past is indeed quite starkly visible. Appears that the El Nino effect is indeed occurring and its effects being felt quite early. But it’s a long way from the El Nino having a full effect on the weather patterns in Goa. But is it only the El Nino effect, or does the climate change phenomenon also have a role to play here?

Goa’s already been feeling the heat, literally, with temperatures rising. The state experienced a highest of 36.5 degrees Celsius in May last, with a feel like of 42 degrees Celsius, with warm nights and an average nighttime temperature of around 29 degrees Celsius.

So far, we have lost half a month of the four-month monsoon season. The clear blue daytime skies and stars sparkling in the night sky, signify that the rains may not drench us yet. We perhaps need to prepare for deficit rainfall, as there are few signs of the monsoon breaking over Goa in earnest and the IMD has forecast a below normal rainfall.

No doubt that this year and perhaps the next too, there will be the El Nino effect on the weather, but we shouldn’t just rest all assumptions on that. Climate change too can have serious consequences and needs to be acted on seriously. While there are plenty of debates on this, little has actually been done to mitigate the effects.

Changing weather patterns, however, are not entirely new in Goa. In 2020, the rainfall had seen a high, with the rain being consistent through the season’s four months. Prior to that, in 2019, there had been 33 per cent above average rainfall recorded, with a late start and intermittent rains. Two years ago, Goa crossed the 100-inch mark of rainfall for the season on July 21, 2024, possibly recording the fastest possible time to achieve this.

The variations in rainfall and the pattern are therefore quite many and need to be studied more to determine the climate change effects. We can’t just blame it all on El Nino.

The writer is a senior journalist, author and editor